Thursday, November 19, 2009

Cairns unemployment stats update

Detailed ABS unemployment data released this morning shows a big turnaround with the ‘official’ unemployment rate for FNQ falling from 13.8% to 8.1%. Again the action is all in male employment stats. Would have to expect greater data volatility and statistical error I guess in smaller regional samples relative to national data, obviously in the real world unemployment hasn't fluctuated that wildly within a month and perhaps last months was overstated? More detail on the population benchmark for the data would be of some interest.

However some of these stats reverse not just last month but some months prior. Points to note in the data:

1) A substantial increase in the total number employed back to levels last seen earlier in the year (Feb & April).

2) A sharp fall in the measured unemployment rate especially male unemployment.

3) However, an offsetting slump in the male participation rate ie people left the workforce, gave up or didn’t bother to look for work.

My techie attempts to embed a new google spreadsheet have been an abysmal failure however the monthly employment stats for FNQ since 2007 compiled from ABS data have been updated down at Far North Unemployment Debacle ......


Update: Reporting and commentary on Cairns unemployment and commentary in the Compost and the Weekend Oz.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

the story of the australian economy

Peter Martin has posted six graphs ... ok one is a table ... to explain the australian economy in recent years from the RBA quarterly statement released on friday. The story really is pretty clear.

I will only post the international arrivals and departures trend for recent years as the one most directly applicable to Cairns perhaps. Departures swamp arrivals .......



What observations can be made from this?

1) Both arrivals and departures during the GFC have been much more resilient than in recent past shocks such as 9/11, the Asia crisis, the mild early noughties US recession, Iraq, internet bubble collapse and 2003 bear market.

2) The trend turnaround between arrivals and departures, correlate with other key trends such as currency, commodities and terms of trade related to China and emerging economies etc etc. Although any small impact from boosted immigration arrivals doesn't show up in the arrivals.
3) International arrivals were stalling long BEFORE the GFC!

Note here that the international arrivals for Cairns in the more recent past, at least as shown in the most recent graph in Cairnswatch from Rick Carr at HTW, show a far more severe downturn on internatinal arrivals in Cairns (ex transits) than apparent in arrivals nationally. Some events very specific to Cairns have impacted locally.

P.S. Amateur economists and chart addicts should also always keep an eye on the excellent monthly RBA chartpack.








Wednesday, November 4, 2009

more funny things in this years annual reports

The very last page of the NLG annual report where Stephen Scott Donnelly pops up as a holder of unquoted options securities? Stephen was the one who quickly disappeared from Hedley and HLG as CFO shortly after some unauthorised transactions earlier this year and a few months before the Hedley collapse!

NLG is the largest tenant of the HLG (ex-hedley) pub fund where the corporate shenanigans attracted the interest of some prominent journo’s some time back such as Bryan Frith in The Oz! Hedley himself holds smack on the 19.99% takeover limit as a holder of NLG (now with receivers) lly?

These options were issued to Hedley back in 2007 as part of the deal that created NLG as the leaseholder and HLG as the pub freeholder. The options are conditional on Hedley buying more pubs and leasing them to NLG which I would have thought now unlikely. Just another of te many conflicts inherent in the HLG float that should have flashed warning lights.

Curious how and why the options ended up with Donnelly ...,,,


Unquoted equity securities
Options expiring 22 June 2011 with an exercise price of $0.48
There are 4 holders with more than 100,001 options, holding a total of 18,000,000 options. There are no other
holders in this class of options.
Holder Number %
Stephen Scott Donnelly 9,000,000 50.00
Options expiring 22 December 2011 with an exercise price of $0.53
There are 4 holders with more than 100,001 options, holding a total of 6,000,000 options. There are no other
holders in this class of options.
Holder Number %
Stephen Scott Donnelly 3,000,000 50.00
Options expiring 22 June 2012 with an exercise price of $0.58
There are 4 holders with more than 100,001 options, holding a total of 6,000,000 options. There are no other
holders in this class of options.
Holder Number %
Stephen Scott Donnelly 3,000,000 50.00

Vote AGAINST Entsch

CEC performance with Wazza as a director. He is the only director up for re-election at this months AGM.


Former Liberal pollies have a lousy record as directors and you can almost slap a sell on as soon as they announce the appointment. CEC lost its Chairman Rob Borbidge, ex coalition premier, and our mate Greg Kern also resigned. The board positions haven't been replaced leaving a rather small and not particularly well structured board.
The outlook from current chairman Tony Hartnell is actually quite upbeat on forward work flowing mostly from infrastructure.